post-earnings review (part 2)
42% YTD returns, Sweden, Soros, update on Vital Farms, Celcius, and more
When the party can’t get any better—it’s time to leave
Hope everyone’s been well and enjoying the weekend. Tonight, I’m writing from Sweden; landed yesterday in Stockholm and spending the next week here with family. And to keep my “Substack portfolio” transparent, here’s my monthly update:
My previous YTD returns below:
This month’s returns have been driven by Vital Farms VITL 0.00%↑, Celcius CELH 0.00%↑ , Revance Therapeutics RVNC 0.00%↑ , and in small part Coupang CPNG 0.00%↑ (in addition to realized gains from Palantir PLTR 0.00%↑ earlier this month). I actually took a decent sized (realized) loss mid month, but I learned a great lesson—never be too concentrated in a position (and U don’t have to make money back in the stocks U lost money from).
*Though, the saddest thing, are my returns from a “Capybara” crypto currency (CAPY) exceeds everything—I’m up the most from a meme... what is this market?*
State of the Market
markets are overflowing w/ animal spirits
too much risk-seeking (crypto as my “risk-o-meter”)
but, “markets can stay irrational longer than U can remain solvent” and markets climb on a wall of worry..
Vital Farms
VITL 0.00%↑ is up 20% since my writeup two weeks ago; it releases earnings and FY24 guidance this Thursday (pre-market)—stay tuned for my recap. I continue to be bullish on Vital Farms, constantly averaging up on any “dips”; proof below:
Also interestingly, my grandmother asked me if I wanted an egg for breakfast, and looking over at the carton it said Utehönsägg or “outside egg” by the brand Stjärnägg. Similarly to Vital Farms’ pasture raised eggs, these types of eggs are popular now in Sweden now, adding another aspect to my Vital Farms thesis. Many consumers are willing to pay more for the [perception of] quality/”humane.” Onwards and upwards!
Celcius
I purchased CELH 0.00%↑ at ~$64.76/share for an unrealized 20%+ gain after earnings. I continue to believe Celcius will be worth around Monster’s MNST 0.00%↑ valuation ($50-60B)—if not more—in the coming years. They continue to hand out Celcius samples at Costco, sell powdered versions, and have continued to expand globally—what a product! The ROIC must be insane. (Swedish convenience store below)
Revance Therapeutics (creator of Daxxify, long lasting Botox)
I purchased RVNC 0.00%↑ at ~5.27/share for an unrealized 30%+ gain after earnings. I covered Revance (a long lasting Botox/cosmetic filler company) over the summer—thanks Michael—so after keeping track of the company for the past 6 months, I thought it was time to buy in. RVNC 0.00%↑ was one of those heavily shorted names too, so it seemed like a oneway bet (after the short squeezes recently). Most of the skepticism about Revance was due to “macro conditions” (and product marketing) but, the setup was similar to the firm Arcutis Biotherapeutics ARQT 0.00%↑—and after revisiting Revance earlier in February, it was too cheap for me to pass up on. Probably selling out soon, though.
Soros on Soros: Staying Ahead of the Curve by George Soros
“Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition, there is no shame in being wrong—only in failing to correct our mistakes”
“Keen on the investment thesis that the market is reluctant to accept “
“A market for trading, stockpicking—or abstaining”
“When you are confused, it is best to do nothing”
I’ve been invested in markets in one way or another for the past 8 years, and have seen the best and worst of times, euphoria, and EUPHORIA. From crypto markets, I learned first hand the dangers of leverage, the importance of liquidity, and the “psychological factors” behind market movements; I’m continuously refining it, but I’m learning when to risk down (when I “feel” greedy), or when to risk up (when I am scared shitless)—keeping in mind not to have too much portfolio turnover (trading fees are a controllable fixed cost!)
Sadly, I’m increasingly believing the leverage in equities shows signs of the crypto circus. Whether its the fault of 0DTE options, investor paranoia, or whatnot—this is not healthy and will not end well.
Right before NVDA’s earnings, U had a two-day drawdown of 10%+ when NOTHING had happened—nothing had fundamentally changed about the company, no earnings had come out but hundreds of billions of value disappeared off of fear. Yes, I understand rebalancing one’s portfolio, but whats the point of “taking profit” when guidance will just beat and raise guidance, again. It’s one of those things where investors must remember—NEVER SHORT ON VALUATION!!! Valuation is not a short catalyst bet, and besides, NVDA could double to $4T and someone will still buy it… Yes, I’m aware of the “hindsight bias” but this is a screenshot of my thoughts pre-NVDA earning (look at the timestamp)
Maybe I was lucky, but there is SO much paranoia pre-earnings—limit your pre-earnings rebalancing as you’re oftentimes leaving money on the table. It’s always an opportunity though; the two day discount gave me a good price for me to repurchase my sold shares of PLTR 0.00%↑ and more. Love me a bargain’
Thanks again for reading this far, and I’ll write something shortly
42 = Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, The Universe, and Everything