learning and market musings (part 4)
portfolio updates (Biscoff Cookies/NIO), JPX, poker, Christopher Dawson, Jil Sander, and more
Hope everyone’s been well. Stay tuned for my full write up on the company Vital FarmsVITL 0.00%↑ and my post-earnings reviews in the next few days.
And try out EdmundSEC (twitter)—I started using this today but so far its a great alternative to BamSec (use it to read transcripts, 10K/10Qs and more)
Lotus Bakeries (written on 26 Oct. and followed up 12 Nov. 2023)
Long thesis on the Biscoff cookie maker is up 35% in three months. Earnings this morning went well with continued growth and an increased dividend of 58 euros (previously 45 euros in FY2022 and 40 euros in FY2021)—as they say, an asset is never too expensive to buy! Full Year highlights: (pdf here)
*my attempt at a ‘pair trade’ was dumb as—but either way that pair trade was net positive ~19% (excluding EUR/USD changes)*
NIO 0.00%↑ Short update (written 28 February, 2022)
My short play on NIO has played out well over the past two years—down more than 70%—most recently with the continued fall in Chinese equity prices. (Will something similar happen to TSLA 0.00%↑ soon? )
FNMA (FannieMae common stock)
I don’t know enough about the FannieMae bonds vs preferred stocks vs common stocks to go in depth but follow Rev_Cap and RealKunalAShah for some insights onto this trade idea. Essentially, if Trump is re-elected, FannieMae’s conservatorship will be re-looked at, which may lead FannieMae to become private, again. If so, there’s a ton of value in the underlying common stock (or it can be completely wiped out, kinda binary) so many people trade FNMA/FNMAS/etc. as a proxy for Trump’s election odds (similar to DWAC 0.00%↑). The common stock is traded OTC (over the counter) so its pretty illiquid; some call this “trading sardines” and some believe its worth $4+ (its currently trading at $1.305), but its worth taking a look at nonetheless.
Tokyo Stock Exchange’s case studies (here)—a continued tailwind for Japanese equities
The above is a compilation of 29 case studies of Japanese companies who are increasing communication with shareholders to understand investor expectations, increase transparency, and increase shareholder value through various initiatives of focusing on ROIC, increasing capital efficiency, and more. (cautionary tales here)
Thierry Roncalli’s Portfolio Allocation and Asset Management
Here’s an amazing resource called Portfolio Allocation and Asset Management
by Thierry Roncalli (Amundi Asset Management), taught at the University of Paris-Saclay. It’s a great extension of Paleologo’s ‘blue book’ covering risk budgeting, factor investing, ‘smart’ beta, and more—my intro to portfolio/risk management here.
On Poker (shoutout A^2 and pokertrainer.se)
I’m new to poker so there’s so much more to learn but I can’t help noticing the similarities to the markets; essentially—how to make the ‘best’ decision given incomplete information (+ the “zero-sum” nature of the game, risk management/‘bank-roll management’, etc.)
Doyle Brunson’s Super System
“I’m also enough of a realist to know, in general, we make our own luck”
“You’ll find good in every man if you look hard enough”
“Your first instinct is the right one… when you act hesitantly, you often go against your first (and best) judgement”
“Allowing your confidence to be shaken can turn a simple losing streak into a terrible case of going bad”
“Once you bet chips—they aren’t yours anymore”
Brynn Kenney on Poker
“Life gives U what U can handle, not what U want”
“Be careful what U wish for because that’s what’s coming. Do U even want what U wish?”
“If you think of something—it is”
“Can U hang onto the roller coaster?”
“Because you’re not competing. You’re only competing against yourself.” (Like the Japanese phrase ‘克己’ or self-overcoming)
“My poker game changed when I started to think of what cards they [opponents] had”
The Making of Europe by Christopher Dawson (1932)
“Facts do not speak for themselves nor do they arrange themselves intelligibly”
“Science is always on the lookout for new evidence and interpretations so it is always going out of date”
“All the events of the last years have convinced me what a fragile thing civilization is, and how near we are to losing the whole inheritance, which our whole age might have acquired” (1928)
“History takes us out of ourselves—away from the obvious and accepted facts—and discover a reality that would otherwise be unknown to us” (3)
“He was too shy ever to be a success”
“Because religious history has a slower wavelength than political, ‘past religion’ turns out mysteriously to be still present”
Long PLTR 0.00%↑ —that’s the thesis…
I need to continue looking into this company but it’s a blackbox of the Department of Defense + multinational companies wrapped up nicely with “AI”—why would U short this?
On Jil Sander (Germans pronounce her as “Jill Zander”)
“Present—because she didn’t want to look back”
“I’m not rich enough to buy cheap stuff”